A/H1N1, a toothless tiger?

BEIJING, June 13 -- Phase-6 alert means the A(H1N1) influenza is now a pandemic. That the World Health Organization (WHO) finally made up its mind to raise the alert level to the highest means we are still at loss for a way to prevent it from spreading further.

Indeed, the WHO, while declaring phase 6, assured us the severity of the pandemic is moderate and there is no need to panic, and continued to recommend no restrictions on travel and no border closures.

More important, given its mild symptoms and the fact that most of those infected have recovered without major medical intervention, many may actually suspect whether we are, as some critics warned, "overreacting".

We might be, in the sense that the cost of precautionary measures has by now far exceeded the real harm the epidemic has inflicted.

In contrast to the authorities' all-out efforts to monitor and track the virus' transmission, the pervasive popular feeling is that the H1N1 is just like a toothless tiger whose threat has been blown out of proportion.

But perhaps not, considering WHO Director-General Margaret Chan's warning that we are now just "at the start" of it. The real trouble isn't that we cannot deal with its current symptoms, but that several countries are losing track of its chains of transmission. We are still in the dark as to how the situation turns out in the months to come.

The country's unparalleled population base, high population density and mobility, as well as uneven distribution of resources render China particularly vulnerable.

Epidemic control has proceeded well in this country, so far so good. But that's because most cases, whether suspected or confirmed, have been imported, with infections mostly confined to major cities at this point.

Can we effectively trace all chains of transmission as the number of infections rises? Will there come a time when our existing monitoring mechanisms admit failure?

Cases of second-generation local transmission have been rare. This in part explains why tracing infections has been remarkably effective in this country. But one feature of a pandemic is its rapid spread.

Things would be much more complex once cases of local transmission see a substantial rise. If it is more or less controllable in the relatively better prepared urban areas, the challenge will prove daunting in rural regions.

During the 2003 SARS onslaught, many rural communities had to resort to self-seclusion to prevent themselves from the epidemic. Six years after that, they deserve better choices.

The WHO's phase 6 pandemic alert requires implementation of contingency plans for health systems "at all levels."

We would like to see more limelight shed on the grassroots levels.

We wish the pandemic is a false alert. But we cannot afford to ignore it at this point.

(Source: China Daily)

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