2009年7月14日星期二

China's think-tank needs to go global

It looms clear that the
currently downward economic situation is also challenging the think tank

system
in China. In recent days, hence, many have been expecting China's think tanks

to
kick off a radical change. A top level think tank, established last month
following the instructions of Premier Wen Jiabao, is believed to be a pioneer
for think tanks' transformation in China.

In contrast to those think tanks affiliated to
government departments, the newly formed China Centre for International

Economic
Exchanges (CCIEE) is a semi-official think tank, now the highest level of the
kind in China. Many members of the centre are retired senior official, and
former Vice Premier, Zeng Peiyan, serves as its Director. Inspired by some
foreign examples-- American politicians Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew

Brzezinski
both had the experience of working in think tanks before and after they

worked
as senior officials in the White House, China is prepared to take advantage

of
the special status of these retired officials, which can help them more

easily
approach public issues. Moreover, their political experience enables them to
understand the particular requirements of policy makers.

However, the status quo of China's think tanks,
estimated 2,000 in number by the News Weekly "Outlook", is far from

satisfactory
in both its professional competence and international clout. That explains

why,
of all the 2,000 research institutes known as think tanks across the nation,
only 74 has reached the international criteria and gained acknowledgement.

Many
think tanks have even incurred public criticism in recent years for their
improper comments and predictions about social and economic situations.

For instance, last July, when the oil prices hit a
record high of 147 U.S. dollars a barrel, some think tanks in China said it
would reach 200 U.S. dollars soon. Five months later, these experts were put

to
shame when prices plunged to 35 U.S. dollars a barrel.

In the period of "travel rush" during Spring
Festival, an expert from a famous think tank set up a huge wave of public

rage
when he released his remarks on media saying "the only way out to settle the
problems related to "travel rush" during holidays is to highly drive up the
traffic fares." Besides, many more so-called think tanks would rather wait

until
problems pile up before making a reckoning, that would be sort of "firing
belated shots."

It is obvious that those think tanks make wrong
judgments not really due to their lack of professional competence, but

actually
because some of them are so closely connected with "interest groups." Experts
from think tanks affiliated to government agencies have to make sure their
remarks are in line with the interests of the department in question. Trapped

in
such a bottle neck, China's think tank system is in the urgent need to make a
breakthrough, and the establishment of semi-official or independent think

tanks
is deemed by many analysts what China literally needs at the time.

Especially at the juncture when China is increasingly
integrated into the international community and comes to be known as a centre
player on the world stage, it seems more desirable than ever for the country

to
possess a more advanced think tank system commensurate with its enhanced
political and economic clout. Perhaps, it would be advisable for china to

draw
on the experience of others in building the internationalized think tank

system,
say, the U.S. has made a name as the "paradise of think tanks" to the world

and
its experience can be taken for reference.

Also in history, the U.S. think tanks, playing a
critical role in helping politicians make policies and work out strategies,

had
turned out many success stories and even legends. In 1950s, on the Eve of the
Korean War, the U.S. government as well as military held identical views
predicting that China would not send its troops to the battle front. But the
famous think tank Research and Development (RAND) published its report, which
was then quite opposite to the official prediction but later proved correct

by
history-- China entered the War on a full scale.

A recent case concerns North Korea's most debated
rocket launch. Many think tanks in the Western world had been vying for time

to
release their latest findings before and during the event, information

ranging
from detailed research reports, both the speed and depth of satellite
photographs, and foresight about potential impacts of the event upon
policy-making of the nations all across the globe. Voice of China's think

tanks
large and small, nevertheless, was not in the least heard in the

international
community. This is ill-matched with China's international status as a crucial
leverage in the Six-Party Talks.

China is emerging as a weight-carrying power, and
therefore, in the process of enhancing its national strength and lifting its
international influence, an internationalized think tank system featuring

global
credibility and significance will prove to be more or less indispensible.

(Source: People's Daily Online)

China's rise opportunity for world

The so-called "threat
of China" is a misinterpretation of the development of China, said Lionel
Vairon, C.E.O of the CEC Consulting and a former French diplomat.







Lionel Vairon (R), C.E.O of the CEC
Consulting and a former French diplomat, poses for a photo before the
interview with Xinhuanet on May 11, 2009 in Beijing. (Xinhuanet
Photo)
Photo
Gallery>>>

"My view on China's development is very simple,
namely, that the rise of China is an opportunity for the world," added

Vairon,
also the author of "Threat of China?" during an exclusive interview with
Xinhuanet Monday.

He added, "In fact, the west probably did not realize
this before 2008 during which they still saw China as a 'problem.'"

"However, presently, influenced by the global
financial crisis, (some western countries£? believe like what an English
newspaper said yesterday that 'China is the beacon of hope.'"

Explaining that China's economic growth is "an
important factor" for the development of the West, he said, "The current
economic situation in China is not bad, so the growth of China's economy

means
that we have a hope to recover (from the financial crisis)."

Vairon suggested western countries to pay closer
attention to what China thinks. "We have to be careful about what China

says."

"Before, the west concerned little about China's view
as they thought China is a developing country, and it, as a member of the

United
Nations Security Council, only approved resolutions but not negotiated with
others."

"However, we know that China is very important for
the whole international community, especially economically," he stressed.

"The west is happy to see that China is going to lead
multi-growth for the next coming years, but also they would be afraid because
China is a 'danger' in a way," said Vairon.

To avoid unnecessary misunderstanding, he called on
the west and China to strengthen communications and exchanges. "So we have to
enhance communication to try to get closer politically and economically, to
understand each other, to understand China is not to use its power to conquer
the world, which is the basic fear of the west."

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis

China's recovery won't drive up commodity prices: Morgan Stanley economist

China's developing
economic recovery would not raise overall commodity prices, Morgan Stanley's
chief economist for Greater China said here Wednesday.

Wang Qing told a media roundtable that the prices of
staple goods would remain low as the global economy was still only at the

stage
where policy makers had managed to avoid a situation parallel to the Great
Depression of the 1930s.

Interpreting recent price hikes for gold, non-ferrous
metals, oil and grains as an "adjustment of relative prices," Wang said that

the
genuine driving force for inflation -- price hikes from an overall demand
increase -- was nowhere in sight.

"The rising prices mirror the ongoing global economic
recovery and will not hinder the overall recovery process," Wang said.

As the global economic structure hasn't changed
during the crisis, the rise of emerging markets such as India and China and
their reviving appetite for resources would inevitably push up commodity

prices.
But at the same time, their growing productivity also pushed down the prices

of
industrial products.

Such an adjustment in relative prices reflected the
scarcity of staple goods relative to industrial products. Since distressed
selling had kept a firm lid on prices during the crisis, the commodities

market
needed a reasonable rebound, Wang said.

As a bullish commodity market restrained only the
economies that grew by a small margin before the crisis, Wang said that some
countries would be hurt by rising commodity prices, but that situation

wouldn't
stop a global recovery.

  INFLATION NO IMMEDIATE CONCERN

In general, he said, inflation would not become a
concern in the next 12 months for the Chinese, U.S. or global economy.

Likening the market argument over inflation or
deflation to the rivalry between Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes,

Wang
said that it was understandable for staunch followers of Friedman to think

that
credit and money supply growth would result in inflation sooner or later.

This correlation would break down, however, based on
Keynesian Theory, he said. That theory stated that when an economy was
catastrophically hit by a financial crisis, inflation couldn't surface when
market demand was weak and the output gap was massive, he said.

Citing records dating back to 1997, when the Asian
financial crisis began, Wang said that the Chinese economy, in particular,

had
seen an interesting correlation between price drops and export declines.

The previous two bouts of deflation, after the Asian
crisis and the 2002 dotcom collapse, both followed plunges in exports.

"As the current export and price drops are the worst
ever, it has been difficult for us to imagine the risk of inflation," Wang

said.


  NO HOUSING BUBBLE

Regarding the housing recovery as the "most inspiring
development" in the Chinese economy, Wang brushed aside concerns of a bubble

and
said he saw the housing market as a significant gauge of the health of the
Chinese economy.

The Chinese economy was past the worst, which was in
the fourth quarter of last year if judged by chain growth or in the first
quarter if judged on a year-on-year basis.

The fastest-paced quarterly recovery would occur in
the first quarter of 2010, Wang said.

As historic data show that the expansion of new floor
area would lag housing sales growth by six months, while loan growth would

lead
fixed-asset investment by six months, Morgan Stanley held that more housing
demand would emerge in China.

To make a sound assessment of China's economy during
the second half of the year and into next year, Wang advised paying more
attention to the supporting role of real estate in the economy.

He said there were clearer signs that the government
had found a "sustainable business model" to address the property problem.

As the government was developing subsidized
low-income apartments together with commercial housing, Wang said jokingly

that
the government had finally learned to "walk with both legs."

A thorny problem facing China's housing industry,
Wang said, was that the market had brought wealth disparities, which were

rare
during the years of the planned economy, out into the open in only a few

years.

"That has had a heavy impact on the general public
and emotionalized almost every academic discussion of housing bubbles," he

said.


As the weakening of the housing market was mainly
caused by the tight monetary policy adopted on Jan. 1, 2008, policy changes
after the crisis had eased the credit environment for realtors and helped end
the "buyers' strike" during which many consumers postponed their home

purchases
until prices fell.

  KUDOS TO CENTRAL BANKS

Despite warnings from academia to many central banks
about inflationary risks, Wang said central banks, including the U.S. Federal
Reserve Board and the People's Bank of China, should be given credit for

having
raised inflation expectations when actually, the economy faced unprecedented
deflationary pressure.

"Without a sufficiently high inflation expectations,
the global economy could hardly emerge from the shadows of economic

depression.
That proves the validity of central bank policies," he said.

"The past rapid expansion of the Chinese and global
economy was an overdraft on the future. The Great Depression was a way to

make
up for an earlier overdraft, but in a catastrophic way.

"Contemporary policymakers who grew up with Keynesian
Theory and macroeconomics are seeking to contain a catastrophe at the price

of
some inflationary risks. If we didn't need to take any inflationary risk, the
crisis would not be anywhere close to the Great Depression of the 1930s," he
said.

The ideal and most likely outcome in the next five or
six years, according to Morgan Stanley's forecast, would be slower growth but
higher inflation. Specifically, the growth of the global economy would drop

to 1
percent to 3 percent annually, while that of the Chinese economy would slow

to 7
percent to 9 percent annually from rates exceeding 10 percent.

The inflation rates for both China and the world
would rise to 3 percent to 5 percent.

China's real estate market still waits for recovery

Spring is yet to come to China's
housing market, and the government should take more measures to stimulate

real
estate development, said Ren Zhiqiang, President of Huayuan Group, at a

breakout
session of the 2009 Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference in Hainan Province

on
Friday.

China's real estate market has shown no sign of any
remarkable recovery so far. After the global financial crisis broke out, the
Chinese government worked out a 4-trillion-yuan emergency plan to boost the
domestic economy. To date, however, only some 200 billion yuan has gone to

the
real estate market, and this investment is far from adequate to bring about

any
radical change, said Ren Zhiqiang.







Ren Zhiqiang, President of Huayuan
Group, at a breakout session of the 2009 Boao Forum for Asia Annual
Conference in Hainan Province on April 17, 2009. (Photo:
china.org.cn)
Photo
Gallery>>>

As the global financial crisis unfolds, China has
loosened some restrictions on the market in second-hand homes. Duties like

stamp
tax and land appreciation tax have been cut down to some extent. Most banks,
however, are still taking a wait-and-see attitude because they have learnt a
serious lesson from the global financial crisis and are not confident of the
development of the domestic housing market, Shi Nengzi, a partner in Deloitte
Consulting China, pointed out.

To help the industry get through these tough times,
Ren Zhiqiang appealed to the government to launch more positive policies and
further reduce such taxes as business tax and tax on dividends.







Pan Shiyi, Chairman of SOHO China Ltd,
receives interview by journalists from Xinhua News Agency in Boao, a
scenic town in south China's Hainan Province, April 17, 2009. The Boao
Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2009 kicked off here Friday.
(Xinhua/Zhao Yingquan)
Photo Gallery>>>

Ren's view, however, was countered by Pan Shiyi,
another real estate developer who owned many skyscrapers in Beijing's Central
Business Districts. According to Pan, the government has taken all possible
measures to support the real estate market, and now the only thing left to do

is
to wait and see the results.

(Source: china.org.cn)

Chinese nationals leave Mexico City in chartered plane

A total of 79 Chinese citizens left Mexico

City early Tuesday aboard a chartered flight sent by the Chinese government.

The plane took off from international airport Benito Juarez at about 3:05

a.m. local time (0805 GMT), heading towards Tijuana, northern city on the

U.S.-Mexico border, to lift 20 more Chinese before returning to China. Full

story

FM: China's bans on pigs, pork imports in line with WTO rules

BEIJING, May 5 (Xinhua) -- China's temporary bans on the imports of pigs

and pork products from some regions hit by the A-strain influenza are in line

with the rules of the World Trade Organizations (WTO), Foreign Ministry

spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said here Tuesday.

China's emergency measures, to safeguard its stock industry and human

health from the A/H1N1 virus, are also in accordance with the rules of the

World Organization for Animal Health, Ma told a regular press conference.

Full story

China says quarantine of Canadian students legal

BEIJING, May 5 (Xinhua) -- China defended on Tuesday its quarantine of 25

Canadian students in Changchun, capital of northeastern Jilin Province,

saying it was in accordance with law and the Canadians had assented to it.

The students began a seven-day quarantine period at a hotel on May 2 when

they arrived, the same day that Canada confirmed 51 cases of A/H1N1 epidemic

infection, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu. Full story

China Exclusive: Quarantined Chinese citizens say life boring, but easy

BEIJING, May 5 (Xinhua) -- Quarantined Chinese citizens said Tuesday that

they understand the medical measures taken to prevent the spread of influenza

A/H1N1, despite the boredom of isolation.

"Quarantine is boring, but easy. We watch TV and read newspapers to kill

time," said a woman surnamed Wen, who is under the seven-day quarantine

period at a hotel in Beijing after returning from Mexico. Full story

China vows to keep killer flu out of border while sending chartered plane to

Mexico

BEIJING, May 4 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice-Premier Li Keqiang on Monday

vowed to keep the worsening global epidemic of influenza A/H1N1 out of

China's border, while the same day the government sent a chartered plane to

Mexico to pick up around 200 stranded Chinese nationals.

"The most important work at present was to strictly check on border

entry" as the killer disease has been mainly reported overseas, Li gave the

direction during a visit to the Ministry of Health. Full story

China's chartered flight arrives in Mexico to bring back nationals

MEXICO CITY, May 5 (Xinhua) -- A chartered flight from China arrived

early Tuesday in Mexico City to bring back some 99 nationals stranded in

Mexico, the epicenter of the A/H1N1 flu outbreak.

The aircraft Boeing 777-200 arrived at about 1:50 a.m. (0750 GMT) early

Tuesday at international airport Benito Juarez to lift 79 Chinese citizens

stranded in the capital. Full story

China hopes Mexico understands its necessary precautions against influenza

A/H1N1

BEIJING, May 4 (Xinhua) -- China on Monday defended its medical

quarantine of some passengers who had traveled on the same flight with a

Mexican man who was infected with influenza A/H1N1.

"The measures concerned are not targeted at Mexican citizens and there is

no discrimination," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu in a press

release. Full story

China's quarantine measures "proper and necessary"

Chinese ambassador to Mexico Yin Hengmin (R) says good-bye to Chinese

citizens waiting for boarding at Benito Juarez international airport in

Mexico City, capital of Mexico, May 5, 2009. A total of 79 Chinese citizens

left Mexico City early Tuesday aboard a chartered flight sent by the Chinese

government. The plane took off from Mexico City, heading towards Tijuana,

northern Mexico, to lift 20 more Chinese before returning to China.

(Xinhua/David De la Paz)
Photo Gallery>>>

BEIJING, May 5 -- China and Mexico Monday agreed to
send chartered flights to each other's countries to fetch their citizens,
dampening a row that stemmed from Beijing's quarantine of Mexican nationals

in
the country amid the global H1N1 flu outbreak.

On Sunday, China Southern Airlines canceled a
chartered flight meant to pick up more than 200 Chinese citizens stranded in
Mexico as it could not secure landing permission from Mexican airports.

The plane finally left Guangzhou for Mexico City at
10 p.m. Monday and is expected to return to Shanghai at 9 am Wednesday, the
airline said.

The Mexican government Monday accused China of singling out its citizens

for forced isolation despite the fact they showed no symptoms of the virus.



A Chinese citizen waits for boarding at Benito Juarez international airport

in Mexico City, capital of Mexico, May 5, 2009. A total of 79 Chinese

citizens left Mexico City early Tuesday aboard a chartered flight sent by the

Chinese government. The plane took off from Mexico City, heading towards

Tijuana, northern Mexico, to lift 20 more Chinese before returning to China.

(Xinhua/David De la Paz)
Photo Gallery>>>



A Mexican embassy official said that there were
nearly 70 Mexicans quarantined across China - in Beijing, Shanghai and
Guangzhou.

Some had traveled to China aboard the same flight
that carried an infected Mexican man - Asia's first confirmed H1N1 flu case -
who is now in a Hong Kong hospital.

Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa called
China's actions "unjustified" and warned Mexicans against visiting China.

China rejected the charge, saying it was not
discriminating against Mexicans and called for Mexico to be "objective and
calm."

"The measures are not targeted at Mexican citizens,
and are not discriminatory. This is purely a question of health inspection

and
quarantine," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said Monday.

"China understands the Mexican side's concern for the rights and

interests of its citizens in China, and hopes to jointly address the epidemic

situation," he said.



Chinese citizens wait for boarding at Benito Juarez international airport in

Mexico City, capital of Mexico, May 5, 2009. A total of 79 Chinese citizens

left Mexico City early Tuesday aboard a chartered flight sent by the Chinese

government. The plane took off from Mexico City, heading towards Tijuana,

northern Mexico, to lift 20 more Chinese before returning to China.

(Xinhua/David De la Paz)
Photo Gallery>>>



The WHO's representative in China, Hans Troeddson,
said Monday the measures taken by Beijing are proper and do not violate
current regulations.

"It's really up to each country and should be in
accordance with their own regulations and legislation on public health and
protection of the population," he said.

Zhong Nanshan, a renowned medical expert and member
of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also defended the quarantine measures.

Medical circles are still unclear over the pathology
of the H1N1 virus, he said. "We're not sure whether H1N1 carriers transfer

the
virus before showing symptoms," Zhong said.

As such, quarantine for a certain period is necessary
to check whether those monitored are infected, he said.

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations
at Renmin University of China, said Mexican authorities' criticism of China's
quarantine moves could slightly affect their relations.

"If the flu had broken out in China and other
countries had taken similar action, I don't think Beijing would have
complained," he said, pointing out that China has also quarantined its own
citizens returning from Mexico.

"(But) we can understand the Mexican reaction, which
has been affected by their domestic situation. Not many will mention it after
two or three weeks," he said.

Most Chinese online users also support the decision
to quarantine Mexicans.

A poll by major information portal Sina.com showed
that 92.5 percent of 4,263 online users said the quarantine was "a necessary
preventive method and had nothing to do with discrimination".

China offered 5 million U.S. dollars in aid to
Mexico last Wednesday - 1 million dollars in cash and 4 million dollars in
medical supplies - the first country to send aid after the epidemic broke

out.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon received the Air China chartered flight
carrying the supplies on Friday.

The second batch of aid material reached Monday.

In China, the authorities have beefed up preventive
measures.

The Ministry of Health (MOH) said Monday
although the mainland has not yet reported any cases of H1N1, there is a
possibility of the virus making its way.

The General Administration of Quality Supervision,
Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) said Monday six more supervision teams
had been sent to Shandong, Hebei, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei

and
Shaanxi provinces to work with local authorities in epidemic prevention. It

sent
five teams to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in late April.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Monday
raised its tally of confirmed human H1N1 cases to 1,003 with 26 confirmed
deaths. Twenty countries and regions have reported laboratory-confirmed cases

so
far. Mexico, the center of the outbreak, has reported 590 cases and 25 deaths
from the virus.

(Source: chinadaily.com.cn)